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2026 / National Football League

Week 5
Projections.

Model-projected scores, spread picks, and market context for this week in the NFL.

October 8 – 12 · 15 gamesUpdated October 6 · 3:18 PM CT
Model historyGoogle Sheets

Week 5 Games

Every score shown is a model projection. Kickoffs are in Central Time; lines show the favored team. Model picks are against the spread.

Showing 15 games

Thursday, October 8

1 game

AT&T Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–4Projected score 23.3
Dallas Cowboys2–2Projected score 25.9
Market line
DAL −8.5
Model line
DAL −2.6
Market total
47.5
Model total
49.2
Model pickTampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5

Projected winnerDallas Cowboys

Sunday, October 11

13 games

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

Philadelphia Eagles2–2Projected score 17.4
Jacksonville Jaguars3–1Projected score 27.0
Market line
JAX −7.0
Model line
JAX −9.6
Market total
42.5
Model total
44.4
Model pickJacksonville Jaguars −7.0

Projected winnerJacksonville Jaguars

Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears3–1Projected score 25.1
Green Bay Packers2–2Projected score 21.8
Market line
CHI −3.0
Model line
CHI −3.3
Market total
45.5
Model total
46.9
Model pickChicago Bears −3.0

Projected winnerChicago Bears

Hard Rock Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals2–2Projected score 26.0
Miami Dolphins0–4Projected score 20.4
Market line
CIN −7.0
Model line
CIN −5.6
Market total
42.5
Model total
46.4
Model pickMiami Dolphins +7.0

Projected winnerCincinnati Bengals

MetLife Stadium

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Cleveland Browns3–1Projected score 21.3
New York Jets1–3Projected score 20.8
Market line
NYJ −2.5
Model line
CLE −0.5
Market total
39.5
Model total
42.1
Model pickCleveland Browns +2.5

Projected winnerCleveland Browns

Nissan Stadium

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans0–4Projected score 22.1
Tennessee Titans0–4Projected score 17.9
Market line
HOU −7.5
Model line
HOU −4.2
Market total
38.5
Model total
40.0
Model pickTennessee Titans +7.5

Projected winnerHouston Texans

Acrisure Stadium

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts2–2Projected score 21.1
Pittsburgh Steelers2–2Projected score 22.5
Market line
PIT −2.5
Model line
PIT −1.5
Market total
44.5
Model total
43.6
Model pickIndianapolis Colts +2.5

Projected winnerPittsburgh Steelers

Gillette Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Las Vegas Raiders3–1Projected score 17.1
New England Patriots2–2Projected score 25.2
Market line
NE −3.5
Model line
NE −8.1
Market total
45.5
Model total
42.3
Model pickNew England Patriots −3.5

Projected winnerNew England Patriots

Caesars Superdome

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Minnesota Vikings4–0Projected score 21.2
New Orleans Saints1–3Projected score 18.8
Market line
MIN −1.5
Model line
MIN −2.4
Market total
42.5
Model total
40.0
Model pickMinnesota Vikings −1.5

Projected winnerMinnesota Vikings

Northwest Stadium

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

New York Giants3–1Projected score 22.0
Washington Commanders1–3Projected score 22.2
Market line
WAS −3.5
Model line
WAS −0.2
Market total
43.5
Model total
44.2
Model pickNew York Giants +3.5

Projected winnerWashington Commanders

SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Denver Broncos2–2Projected score 20.2
Los Angeles Chargers0–4Projected score 18.7
Market line
DEN −3.5
Model line
DEN −1.6
Market total
42.5
Model total
38.9
Model pickLos Angeles Chargers +3.5

Projected winnerDenver Broncos

State Farm Stadium

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Detroit Lions2–2Projected score 26.9
Arizona Cardinals1–3Projected score 23.0
Market line
DET −4.5
Model line
DET −3.9
Market total
54.5
Model total
50.0
Model pickArizona Cardinals +4.5

Projected winnerDetroit Lions

Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers4–0Projected score 21.9
Seattle Seahawks3–1Projected score 24.3
Market line
SEA −2.5
Model line
SEA −2.4
Market total
46.5
Model total
46.1
Model pickSan Francisco 49ers +2.5

Projected winnerSeattle Seahawks

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens3–1Projected score 24.0
Atlanta Falcons2–2Projected score 23.7
Market line
ATL −3.5
Model line
BAL −0.3
Market total
43.5
Model total
47.7
Model pickBaltimore Ravens +3.5

Projected winnerBaltimore Ravens

Monday, October 12

1 game

SoFi Stadium

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Buffalo Bills3–1Projected score 24.2
Los Angeles Rams2–2Projected score 25.4
Market line
LA −2.5
Model line
LA −1.2
Market total
54.5
Model total
49.5
Model pickBuffalo Bills +2.5

Projected winnerLos Angeles Rams