2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Southern Missat
Troy
Tuesday, October 6 · 7:00 PM CT · ESPN2
Veterans Memorial Stadium · Troy, AL
- Projected score (away / home)
- 19.9/31.3
- Model line
- Troy −11.4
- Market line
- Troy −10.5
- Model pick
- Troy −10.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.021 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.215 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.035 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.075 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Southern Miss
1closely matched
5-point threshold
5areas favor
Troy
EfficiencyTroy11.7 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 24.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 61.3
- Matchup attack score
- 31.4
Offense: 0.069 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.036 PPA/play
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 30.7
- Matchup attack score
- 43.1
Offense: 0.023 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.150 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateEven4.4 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.8
- Matchup attack score
- 34.7
Offense: 42.5%
Opponent defense: 37.2%
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 12.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.8
- Matchup attack score
- 30.3
Offense: 38.0%
Opponent defense: 40.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingTroy16.4 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 14.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 68.6
- Matchup attack score
- 23.0
Offense: 0.021 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.075 PPA/play
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.0
- Matchup attack score
- 39.4
Offense: 0.035 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.215 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingTroy12.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 70.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 74.5
- Matchup attack score
- 47.8
Offense: 0.189 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.035 PPA/play
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 31.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 10.2
- Matchup attack score
- 60.6
Offense: 0.047 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.222 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessTroy30.7 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 24.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.2
- Matchup attack score
- 47.4
Offense: 1.156 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.318 PPA/successful play
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 71.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 15.3
- Matchup attack score
- 78.1
Offense: 1.313 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.388 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocTroy12.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 31.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 74.8
- Matchup attack score
- 28.3
Offense: 15.7%
Opponent defense: 18.2%
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.2
- Matchup attack score
- 40.5
Offense: 20.2%
Opponent defense: 13.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesSouthern Miss24.5 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Southern Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 56.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 44.5
Offense: 4.09 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Troy offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.0
- Matchup attack score
- 20.1
Offense: 2.96 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.96 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.