2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
New Mexico Stateat
Florida International
Wednesday, October 7 · 6:30 PM CT · ESPN2
Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL
- Projected score (away / home)
- 18.8/28.1
- Model line
- Florida International −9.3
- Market line
- Florida International −6.0
- Model pick
- Florida International −6.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.108 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.113 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.123 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.048 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
New Mexico State
0closely matched
5-point threshold
6areas favor
Florida International
EfficiencyFlorida International10.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 20.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 72.3
- Matchup attack score
- 24.1
Offense: 0.043 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.004 PPA/play
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.1
- Matchup attack score
- 35.0
Offense: 0.009 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.096 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateFlorida International21.2 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 91.2
- Matchup attack score
- 15.3
Offense: 39.7%
Opponent defense: 33.7%
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 18.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 45.3
- Matchup attack score
- 36.5
Offense: 39.1%
Opponent defense: 41.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingFlorida International8.4 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 25.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 75.9
- Matchup attack score
- 24.8
Offense: 0.108 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.048 PPA/play
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 26.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.9
- Matchup attack score
- 33.2
Offense: 0.123 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.113 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingFlorida International9.5 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 39.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.1
- Matchup attack score
- 30.7
Offense: 0.082 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.058 PPA/play
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: -0.079 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.126 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessNew Mexico State14.6 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 93.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 72.3
- Matchup attack score
- 60.6
Offense: 1.435 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.159 PPA/successful play
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 39.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 47.4
- Matchup attack score
- 46.0
Offense: 1.207 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.259 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocFlorida International31.6 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 20.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 26.1
Offense: 16.8%
Opponent defense: 17.7%
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 37.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 22.3
- Matchup attack score
- 57.7
Offense: 15.3%
Opponent defense: 13.2%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesFlorida International16.4 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
New Mexico State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 83.2
- Matchup attack score
- 27.4
Offense: 3.66 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.76 pts/opportunity
Florida International offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 18.2
- Matchup attack score
- 43.8
Offense: 2.50 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.06 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.