2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Missouri Stateat
Western Kentucky
Thursday, October 8 · 6:00 PM CT · CBSSN
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY
- Projected score (away / home)
- 26.8/27.8
- Model line
- Western Kentucky −1.0
- Market line
- Western Kentucky −2.5
- Model pick
- Missouri State +2.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.200 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.406 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.014 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.260 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
6areas favor
Missouri State
1closely matched
5-point threshold
0areas favor
Western Kentucky
EfficiencyMissouri State20.8 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 39.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 4.4
- Matchup attack score
- 67.5
Offense: 0.115 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.282 PPA/play
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 11.7
- Matchup attack score
- 46.7
Offense: -0.083 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.221 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateEven0.7 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 20.4
- Matchup attack score
- 53.3
Offense: 40.7%
Opponent defense: 44.7%
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 2.2
- Matchup attack score
- 52.6
Offense: 36.4%
Opponent defense: 50.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingMissouri State7.3 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 43.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 57.3
Offense: 0.200 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.260 PPA/play
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 11.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 11.7
- Matchup attack score
- 50.0
Offense: 0.014 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.406 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingMissouri State39.1 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 35.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 2.2
- Matchup attack score
- 66.4
Offense: 0.070 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.300 PPA/play
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 47.4
- Matchup attack score
- 27.4
Offense: -0.174 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.078 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessMissouri State39.8 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 35.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 1.5
- Matchup attack score
- 67.2
Offense: 1.199 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.566 PPA/successful play
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 92.7
- Matchup attack score
- 27.4
Offense: 1.243 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.064 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocMissouri State6.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 17.9
- Matchup attack score
- 52.0
Offense: 16.6%
Opponent defense: 12.9%
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 29.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.0
- Matchup attack score
- 45.8
Offense: 15.8%
Opponent defense: 14.9%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesMissouri State29.4 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Missouri State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 72.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 4.4
- Matchup attack score
- 83.9
Offense: 4.37 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.59 pts/opportunity
Western Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 30.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.2
- Matchup attack score
- 54.6
Offense: 3.43 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.97 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.