2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Sam Houstonat
Liberty
Thursday, October 8 · 6:00 PM CT · ESPNU
Williams Stadium · Lynchburg, VA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 16.2/35.7
- Model line
- Liberty −19.4
- Market line
- Liberty −13.5
- Model pick
- Liberty −13.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.237 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.096 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.310 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.076 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
2areas favor
Sam Houston
1closely matched
5-point threshold
4areas favor
Liberty
EfficiencyLiberty23.4 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 23.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 75.2
- Matchup attack score
- 24.1
Offense: 0.068 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.009 PPA/play
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 52.6
- Matchup attack score
- 47.4
Offense: 0.147 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.068 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateLiberty27.0 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 52.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 92.0
- Matchup attack score
- 30.3
Offense: 43.9%
Opponent defense: 33.6%
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 58.4
- Matchup attack score
- 57.3
Offense: 47.0%
Opponent defense: 39.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingSam Houston5.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 49.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.2
- Matchup attack score
- 41.2
Offense: 0.237 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.076 PPA/play
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 63.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 92.7
- Matchup attack score
- 35.4
Offense: 0.310 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.096 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingLiberty43.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 4.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.1
- Matchup attack score
- 22.6
Offense: -0.125 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.022 PPA/play
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 5.1
- Matchup attack score
- 66.4
Offense: 0.075 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.259 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessSam Houston37.2 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 60.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 13.9
- Matchup attack score
- 73.4
Offense: 1.282 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.396 PPA/successful play
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 14.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.3
- Matchup attack score
- 36.1
Offense: 1.132 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.273 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocLiberty8.9 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.8
- Matchup attack score
- 16.1
Offense: 17.5%
Opponent defense: 19.2%
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 45.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 95.3
- Matchup attack score
- 25.0
Offense: 14.8%
Opponent defense: 22.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesEven2.6 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Sam Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 31.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.8
- Matchup attack score
- 24.8
Offense: 3.46 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.79 pts/opportunity
Liberty offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.1
- Matchup attack score
- 27.4
Offense: 3.47 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.88 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.