2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Louisianaat
Louisiana Tech
Saturday, October 10 · 6:30 PM CT · ESPN+
Joe Aillet Stadium · Ruston, LA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 28.6/23.5
- Model line
- Louisiana −5.2
- Market line
- Louisiana Tech −3.0
- Model pick
- Louisiana +3.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.229 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.189 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.232 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.079 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
4areas favor
Louisiana
1closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Louisiana Tech
EfficiencyLouisiana25.2 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 44.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 39.4
- Matchup attack score
- 52.6
Offense: 0.133 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.102 PPA/play
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 42.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 87.6
- Matchup attack score
- 27.4
Offense: 0.124 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.072 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateLouisiana13.7 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.1
- Matchup attack score
- 44.2
Offense: 43.1%
Opponent defense: 39.3%
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 15.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 54.4
- Matchup attack score
- 30.5
Offense: 38.7%
Opponent defense: 40.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingLouisiana Tech12.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 66.4
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: 0.229 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.079 PPA/play
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 48.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.3
- Matchup attack score
- 52.9
Offense: 0.232 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.189 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingLouisiana54.0 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 63.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 17.5
- Matchup attack score
- 73.0
Offense: 0.163 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.154 PPA/play
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 36.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 98.5
- Matchup attack score
- 19.0
Offense: 0.071 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.229 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEven4.4 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 12.4
- Matchup attack score
- 52.6
Offense: 1.135 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.400 PPA/successful play
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 92.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 96.4
- Matchup attack score
- 48.2
Offense: 1.431 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.024 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocLouisiana10.4 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 60.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 95.3
- Matchup attack score
- 32.8
Offense: 13.6%
Opponent defense: 22.4%
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 23.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.8
- Matchup attack score
- 22.4
Offense: 16.3%
Opponent defense: 18.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesLouisiana Tech16.6 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Louisiana offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.8
- Matchup attack score
- 56.0
Offense: 3.80 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.67 pts/opportunity
Louisiana Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 57.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 12.4
- Matchup attack score
- 72.6
Offense: 4.11 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.31 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.