2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
South Alabamaat
Arkansas State
Thursday, October 8 · 6:30 PM CT · ESPN2
Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR
- Projected score (away / home)
- 25.3/32.9
- Model line
- Arkansas State −7.6
- Market line
- Arkansas State −1.5
- Model pick
- Arkansas State −1.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.401 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.312 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.149 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.463 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
3areas favor
South Alabama
2closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Arkansas State
EfficiencySouth Alabama11.7 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 68.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.1
- Matchup attack score
- 76.3
Offense: 0.226 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.197 PPA/play
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 9.5
- Matchup attack score
- 64.6
Offense: 0.110 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.267 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateArkansas State8.8 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 8.8
- Matchup attack score
- 69.0
Offense: 43.1%
Opponent defense: 47.4%
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 62.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 7.3
- Matchup attack score
- 77.7
Offense: 45.2%
Opponent defense: 47.8%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingSouth Alabama32.5 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 79.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 3.6
- Matchup attack score
- 88.0
Offense: 0.401 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.463 PPA/play
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 33.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 22.6
- Matchup attack score
- 55.5
Offense: 0.149 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.312 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingArkansas State17.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 58.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.7
- Matchup attack score
- 55.8
Offense: 0.151 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.080 PPA/play
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 6.6
- Matchup attack score
- 73.7
Offense: 0.132 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.255 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEven1.5 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 60.6
- Matchup attack score
- 60.6
Offense: 1.345 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.192 PPA/successful play
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 23.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 5.1
- Matchup attack score
- 59.1
Offense: 1.154 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.458 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocSouth Alabama47.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 65.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 5.1
- Matchup attack score
- 79.9
Offense: 13.3%
Opponent defense: 11.5%
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.4
- Matchup attack score
- 32.7
Offense: 15.2%
Opponent defense: 18.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesEven3.8 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
South Alabama offense
- Offensive percentile
- 60.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.3
- Matchup attack score
- 59.3
Offense: 4.20 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.56 pts/opportunity
Arkansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 33.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 7.3
- Matchup attack score
- 63.1
Offense: 3.54 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.41 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.