2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Old Dominionat
App State
Saturday, October 10 · 12:00 PM CT · ESPN+
Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC
- Projected score (away / home)
- 21.5/25.8
- Model line
- App State −4.3
- Market line
- App State −9.5
- Model pick
- Old Dominion +9.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- -0.179 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.266 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.475 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.070 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Old Dominion
1closely matched
5-point threshold
5areas favor
App State
EfficiencyApp State16.8 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.9
- Matchup attack score
- 29.9
Offense: -0.127 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.099 PPA/play
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 56.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 63.5
- Matchup attack score
- 46.7
Offense: 0.178 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.027 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateEven4.7 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.9
- Matchup attack score
- 35.0
Offense: 30.0%
Opponent defense: 43.0%
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 72.3
- Matchup attack score
- 30.3
Offense: 41.7%
Opponent defense: 37.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingApp State65.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.1
- Matchup attack score
- 15.3
Offense: -0.179 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.070 PPA/play
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 87.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 25.5
- Matchup attack score
- 81.0
Offense: 0.475 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.266 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingOld Dominion28.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 6.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 20.4
- Matchup attack score
- 43.1
Offense: -0.087 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.143 PPA/play
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 11.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 83.2
- Matchup attack score
- 14.2
Offense: -0.064 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.116 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessApp State7.3 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 97.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 86.1
- Matchup attack score
- 55.8
Offense: 1.506 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.111 PPA/successful play
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 54.7
- Matchup attack score
- 63.1
Offense: 1.343 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.222 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocApp State48.4 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 66.1
- Matchup attack score
- 17.0
Offense: 25.4%
Opponent defense: 17.6%
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 77.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.4
- Matchup attack score
- 65.3
Offense: 12.2%
Opponent defense: 15.7%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesApp State18.6 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Old Dominion offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 32.1
- Matchup attack score
- 36.9
Offense: 2.50 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.73 pts/opportunity
App State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.9
- Matchup attack score
- 55.5
Offense: 3.69 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.75 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.