2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Kent Stateat
Western Michigan
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ESPN+
Waldo Stadium · Kalamazoo, MI
- Projected score (away / home)
- 14.4/29.1
- Model line
- Western Michigan −14.7
- Market line
- Western Michigan −13.5
- Model pick
- Western Michigan −13.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.170 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.154 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.068 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.119 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Kent State
1closely matched
5-point threshold
5areas favor
Western Michigan
EfficiencyWestern Michigan5.5 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 15.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 41.6
- Matchup attack score
- 36.9
Offense: 0.022 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.098 PPA/play
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 35.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.1
- Matchup attack score
- 42.3
Offense: 0.102 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.069 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateWestern Michigan13.5 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.2
- Matchup attack score
- 42.3
Offense: 35.1%
Opponent defense: 44.6%
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 33.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.9
- Matchup attack score
- 55.8
Offense: 41.8%
Opponent defense: 44.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingEven4.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 36.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 56.2
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: 0.170 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.119 PPA/play
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.1
- Matchup attack score
- 35.4
Offense: 0.068 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.154 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingWestern Michigan12.0 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 48.9
- Matchup attack score
- 34.3
Offense: -0.016 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.074 PPA/play
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 50.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 57.7
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 0.122 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.031 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessKent State27.4 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.8
- Matchup attack score
- 41.6
Offense: 1.323 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.084 PPA/successful play
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.8
- Matchup attack score
- 14.2
Offense: 1.096 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.128 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocWestern Michigan8.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 6.2
- Matchup attack score
- 55.7
Offense: 16.9%
Opponent defense: 11.6%
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 63.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 36.1
- Matchup attack score
- 63.9
Offense: 13.4%
Opponent defense: 14.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesWestern Michigan55.5 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Kent State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 54.0
- Matchup attack score
- 25.9
Offense: 2.50 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.32 pts/opportunity
Western Michigan offense
- Offensive percentile
- 66.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 3.6
- Matchup attack score
- 81.4
Offense: 4.30 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.62 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.