2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Buffaloat
Toledo
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ESPN+
Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH
- Projected score (away / home)
- 15.1/33.8
- Model line
- Toledo −18.7
- Market line
- Toledo −20.5
- Model pick
- Buffalo +20.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.063 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.251 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.383 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.244 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
0areas favor
Buffalo
0closely matched
5-point threshold
7areas favor
Toledo
EfficiencyToledo48.2 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 69.3
- Matchup attack score
- 22.3
Offense: 0.009 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.013 PPA/play
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.0
- Matchup attack score
- 70.4
Offense: 0.267 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.113 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateToledo34.3 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 82.5
- Matchup attack score
- 11.3
Offense: 35.0%
Opponent defense: 35.1%
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 56.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.7
- Matchup attack score
- 45.6
Offense: 44.5%
Opponent defense: 38.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingToledo27.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 32.8
- Matchup attack score
- 44.2
Offense: 0.063 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.244 PPA/play
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 75.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 32.1
- Matchup attack score
- 71.9
Offense: 0.383 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.251 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingToledo26.3 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 75.9
- Matchup attack score
- 20.1
Offense: -0.019 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.041 PPA/play
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 57.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.0
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 0.150 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.013 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessToledo22.6 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.8
- Matchup attack score
- 62.0
Offense: 1.213 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.380 PPA/successful play
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 95.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 26.3
- Matchup attack score
- 84.7
Offense: 1.465 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.332 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocToledo16.6 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 30.3
- Matchup attack score
- 48.5
Offense: 16.0%
Opponent defense: 14.0%
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 69.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 39.1
- Matchup attack score
- 65.1
Offense: 13.1%
Opponent defense: 15.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesToledo27.0 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Buffalo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 72.3
- Matchup attack score
- 37.8
Offense: 3.80 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.97 pts/opportunity
Toledo offense
- Offensive percentile
- 68.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.7
- Matchup attack score
- 64.8
Offense: 4.33 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.61 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.