2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Sacramento Stateat
Bowling Green
Saturday, October 10 · 11:00 AM CT · ESPN+
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green, OH
- Projected score (away / home)
- 22.7/19.3
- Model line
- Sacramento State −3.5
- Market line
- Bowling Green −7.0
- Model pick
- Sacramento State +7.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- -0.002 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.354 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.151 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.177 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
3areas favor
Sacramento State
2closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Bowling Green
EfficiencyEven2.6 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 1.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.7
- Matchup attack score
- 36.9
Offense: -0.110 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.155 PPA/play
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 3.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.0
- Matchup attack score
- 34.3
Offense: -0.091 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.130 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateSacramento State39.1 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 22.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 11.7
- Matchup attack score
- 55.5
Offense: 39.9%
Opponent defense: 46.1%
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 10.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.1
- Matchup attack score
- 16.4
Offense: 37.9%
Opponent defense: 36.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingBowling Green27.4 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 9.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 45.3
- Matchup attack score
- 32.1
Offense: -0.002 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.177 PPA/play
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 34.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 15.3
- Matchup attack score
- 59.5
Offense: 0.151 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.354 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingSacramento State31.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 1.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 10.9
- Matchup attack score
- 45.3
Offense: -0.209 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.218 PPA/play
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.0
- Matchup attack score
- 13.5
Offense: -0.347 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.032 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessBowling Green10.9 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.9
- Matchup attack score
- 35.4
Offense: 0.973 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.315 PPA/successful play
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 7.3
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 0.948 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.448 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven3.6 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 13.9
- Matchup attack score
- 51.8
Offense: 16.9%
Opponent defense: 12.5%
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 10.9
- Matchup attack score
- 48.2
Offense: 19.0%
Opponent defense: 12.2%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesSacramento State7.3 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Sacramento State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.7
- Matchup attack score
- 43.8
Offense: 2.55 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.03 pts/opportunity
Bowling Green offense
- Offensive percentile
- 1.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 36.5
Offense: 1.64 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.82 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.