2026 college football / Week 11 matchup
UNLVat
New Mexico
Saturday, November 14 · 6:30 PM CT · CW
Albuquerque, NM
- Projected score (away / home)
- 13.5/34.7
- Model line
- New Mexico −21.2
- Market line
- New Mexico −14.0
- Model pick
- New Mexico −14.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.205 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.037 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.052 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.081 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
2areas favor
UNLV
0closely matched
5-point threshold
5areas favor
New Mexico
EfficiencyNew Mexico27.4 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 100.0
- Matchup attack score
- 20.1
Offense: 0.105 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.191 PPA/play
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 52.6
- Matchup attack score
- 47.4
Offense: 0.123 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.094 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateNew Mexico48.5 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 18.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 100.0
- Matchup attack score
- 9.1
Offense: 39.0%
Opponent defense: 28.5%
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 55.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.1
- Matchup attack score
- 57.7
Offense: 42.9%
Opponent defense: 42.7%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingUNLV9.9 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.8
- Matchup attack score
- 24.5
Offense: 0.205 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.081 PPA/play
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 14.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 85.4
- Matchup attack score
- 14.6
Offense: 0.052 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.037 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingNew Mexico62.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 43.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 100.0
- Matchup attack score
- 21.5
Offense: 0.082 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.235 PPA/play
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 79.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 10.9
- Matchup attack score
- 84.3
Offense: 0.185 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.187 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessUNLV32.5 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 67.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 7.3
- Matchup attack score
- 80.3
Offense: 1.296 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.385 PPA/successful play
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.1
- Matchup attack score
- 47.8
Offense: 1.264 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.215 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocNew Mexico56.6 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 100.0
- Matchup attack score
- 16.4
Offense: 16.2%
Opponent defense: 25.7%
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 71.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 25.9
- Matchup attack score
- 73.0
Offense: 13.3%
Opponent defense: 14.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesNew Mexico30.3 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
UNLV offense
- Offensive percentile
- 29.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 99.3
- Matchup attack score
- 15.3
Offense: 3.43 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.03 pts/opportunity
New Mexico offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.9
- Matchup attack score
- 45.6
Offense: 3.77 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.38 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–10 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.