2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Wyomingat
San José State
Friday, October 9 · 8:00 PM CT · CBSSN
CEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 22.9/20.3
- Model line
- Wyoming −2.5
- Market line
- San José State −6.5
- Model pick
- Wyoming +6.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.023 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.220 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.287 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.173 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Wyoming
2closely matched
5-point threshold
4areas favor
San José State
EfficiencySan José State11.3 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 29.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 57.7
- Matchup attack score
- 36.1
Offense: 0.088 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.055 PPA/play
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 26.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 31.4
- Matchup attack score
- 47.4
Offense: 0.079 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.148 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateWyoming7.7 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 37.2
- Matchup attack score
- 57.3
Offense: 43.6%
Opponent defense: 42.3%
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 11.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 12.4
- Matchup attack score
- 49.6
Offense: 38.0%
Opponent defense: 45.9%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingSan José State26.3 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 15.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.0
- Matchup attack score
- 34.7
Offense: 0.023 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.173 PPA/play
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 58.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 36.5
- Matchup attack score
- 60.9
Offense: 0.287 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.220 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingEven0.4 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 58.4
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 0.124 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.023 PPA/play
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 10.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.0
- Matchup attack score
- 46.0
Offense: -0.066 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.151 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessSan José State11.7 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 4.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 86.9
- Matchup attack score
- 8.8
Offense: 1.059 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.107 PPA/successful play
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 91.2
- Matchup attack score
- 20.4
Offense: 1.186 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.075 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven3.8 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 33.2
- Matchup attack score
- 53.5
Offense: 15.1%
Opponent defense: 14.2%
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 33.2
- Matchup attack score
- 57.3
Offense: 14.7%
Opponent defense: 14.2%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesSan José State11.3 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Wyoming offense
- Offensive percentile
- 10.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 63.5
- Matchup attack score
- 23.7
Offense: 2.84 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.11 pts/opportunity
San José State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 56.9
- Matchup attack score
- 35.0
Offense: 3.35 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.28 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.