DSCFB Matchups
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2026 college football / Week 6 matchup

North Dakota StateatUNLV

North Dakota State · 5–0UNLV · 3–2

Saturday, October 10 · 6:00 PM CT · CW
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV

Projected score (away / home)
28.8/22.0
Model line
North Dakota State −6.8
Market line
North Dakota State −3.0
Model pick
North Dakota State −3.0

01 / Team identity

Offense + defense

North Dakota State and UNLV: overall matchup fingerprintsScores run from 0 at the center to 100 at the outside. North Dakota State is a solid green line with round markers; UNLV is a dashed rust line with square markers. Exact values are listed beside the chart. Missing data is left unplotted. Pace indicates speed, not strength.EfficiencySuccessratePassingRushingExplosivenessHavocFinishingdrivesPace255075100

Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.

Category / 0–100NDSUUNLV

Passing

Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.

North Dakota State
Offense
0.349 PPA/play
Defense
-0.187 PPA/play
UNLV
Offense
0.180 PPA/play
Defense
0.064 PPA/play

02 / Matchup advantages

7areas favor
North Dakota State

0closely matched
5-point threshold

0areas favor
UNLV

EfficiencyNorth Dakota State34.7 pts

Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
60.6
Opponent defensive percentile
59.1
Matchup attack score
50.7

Offense: 0.192 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.046 PPA/play

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
31.4
Opponent defensive percentile
99.3
Matchup attack score
16.1

Offense: 0.089 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.206 PPA/play

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

Success rateNorth Dakota State23.7 pts

How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
48.9
Opponent defensive percentile
62.8
Matchup attack score
43.1

Offense: 43.3%
Opponent defense: 38.8%

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
8.8
Opponent defensive percentile
70.1
Matchup attack score
19.3

Offense: 36.6%
Opponent defense: 37.2%

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

PassingNorth Dakota State27.0 pts

Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
68.6
Opponent defensive percentile
72.3
Matchup attack score
48.2

Offense: 0.349 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.064 PPA/play

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
40.1
Opponent defensive percentile
97.8
Matchup attack score
21.2

Offense: 0.180 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.187 PPA/play

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

RushingNorth Dakota State38.0 pts

Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
48.9
Opponent defensive percentile
35.0
Matchup attack score
56.9

Offense: 0.115 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.108 PPA/play

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
35.8
Opponent defensive percentile
97.8
Matchup attack score
19.0

Offense: 0.070 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.205 PPA/play

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

ExplosivenessNorth Dakota State26.6 pts

Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
75.2
Opponent defensive percentile
43.8
Matchup attack score
65.7

Offense: 1.329 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.269 PPA/successful play

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
77.4
Opponent defensive percentile
99.3
Matchup attack score
39.1

Offense: 1.333 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 0.989 PPA/successful play

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

HavocNorth Dakota State25.2 pts

Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
70.8
Opponent defensive percentile
52.9
Matchup attack score
58.9

Offense: 13.0%
Opponent defense: 16.3%

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
31.4
Opponent defensive percentile
63.9
Matchup attack score
33.8

Offense: 15.7%
Opponent defense: 17.5%

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

Finishing drivesNorth Dakota State36.7 pts

Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.

North Dakota State offense

Offensive percentile
58.8
Opponent defensive percentile
59.9
Matchup attack score
49.5

Offense: 4.17 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.23 pts/opportunity

UNLV offense

Offensive percentile
24.8
Opponent defensive percentile
99.3
Matchup attack score
12.8

Offense: 3.30 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 1.63 pts/opportunity

Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.

Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.

How to read these charts

Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.

Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.

Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.

Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.