2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Air Forceat
Northern Illinois
Saturday, October 10 · 6:30 PM CT · CBSSN
Huskie Stadium · DeKalb, IL
- Projected score (away / home)
- 34.7/15.7
- Model line
- Air Force −19.0
- Market line
- Air Force −7.5
- Model pick
- Air Force −7.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.095 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.031 PPA/play
- Offense
- -0.028 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.433 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
6areas favor
Air Force
0closely matched
5-point threshold
1area favors
Northern Illinois
EfficiencyAir Force55.5 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 8.0
- Matchup attack score
- 73.0
Offense: 0.167 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.269 PPA/play
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 17.5
Offense: -0.097 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.016 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateAir Force57.3 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 14.6
- Matchup attack score
- 69.7
Offense: 44.0%
Opponent defense: 45.7%
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 14.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.8
- Matchup attack score
- 12.4
Offense: 38.5%
Opponent defense: 34.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingAir Force45.3 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 24.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 6.6
- Matchup attack score
- 58.8
Offense: 0.095 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.433 PPA/play
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.8
- Matchup attack score
- 13.5
Offense: -0.028 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.031 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingAir Force44.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.7
- Matchup attack score
- 75.5
Offense: 0.215 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.129 PPA/play
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 14.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 53.3
- Matchup attack score
- 30.7
Offense: -0.040 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.048 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessNorthern Illinois6.6 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.2
- Matchup attack score
- 43.4
Offense: 1.100 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.368 PPA/successful play
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 13.1
- Matchup attack score
- 50.0
Offense: 1.122 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.396 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocAir Force53.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 100.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 15.3
- Matchup attack score
- 92.3
Offense: 7.2%
Opponent defense: 12.7%
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.0
- Matchup attack score
- 39.1
Offense: 17.7%
Opponent defense: 14.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesAir Force39.4 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Air Force offense
- Offensive percentile
- 71.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 31.4
- Matchup attack score
- 70.1
Offense: 4.36 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.73 pts/opportunity
Northern Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 39.4
- Matchup attack score
- 30.7
Offense: 1.55 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.60 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.