2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
UABat
Memphis
Saturday, October 10 · 6:00 PM CT · ESPN2
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN
- Projected score (away / home)
- 20.4/37.7
- Model line
- Memphis −17.4
- Market line
- Memphis −14.0
- Model pick
- Memphis −14.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- -0.005 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.037 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.620 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.080 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
2areas favor
UAB
0closely matched
5-point threshold
5areas favor
Memphis
EfficiencyMemphis8.8 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 28.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 24.8
- Matchup attack score
- 51.8
Offense: 0.085 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.162 PPA/play
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.7
- Matchup attack score
- 60.6
Offense: 0.294 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.018 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateMemphis32.1 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 55.5
- Matchup attack score
- 47.8
Offense: 43.5%
Opponent defense: 39.9%
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 87.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.7
- Matchup attack score
- 79.9
Offense: 50.0%
Opponent defense: 43.3%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingMemphis33.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.0
- Matchup attack score
- 21.9
Offense: -0.005 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.080 PPA/play
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 97.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 86.9
- Matchup attack score
- 55.5
Offense: 0.620 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.037 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingUAB18.6 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 67.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 0.7
- Matchup attack score
- 83.6
Offense: 0.176 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.318 PPA/play
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 71.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 41.6
- Matchup attack score
- 65.0
Offense: 0.202 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.090 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessUAB23.0 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 3.6
- Matchup attack score
- 62.0
Offense: 1.166 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.469 PPA/successful play
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 95.6
- Matchup attack score
- 39.1
Offense: 1.326 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.033 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocMemphis27.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 35.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 55.1
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: 15.5%
Opponent defense: 16.6%
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.8
- Matchup attack score
- 67.3
Offense: 11.0%
Opponent defense: 16.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesMemphis56.9 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
UAB offense
- Offensive percentile
- 12.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 60.6
- Matchup attack score
- 25.7
Offense: 2.89 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.21 pts/opportunity
Memphis offense
- Offensive percentile
- 91.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 26.3
- Matchup attack score
- 82.7
Offense: 4.94 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.84 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.