2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Riceat
East Carolina
Saturday, October 10 · 3:00 PM CT · ESPN+
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville, NC
- Projected score (away / home)
- 17.4/31.9
- Model line
- East Carolina −14.4
- Market line
- East Carolina −10.0
- Model pick
- East Carolina −10.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- -0.124 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.050 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.262 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.028 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
0areas favor
Rice
0closely matched
5-point threshold
7areas favor
East Carolina
EfficiencyEast Carolina29.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 66.4
- Matchup attack score
- 24.8
Offense: 0.022 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.017 PPA/play
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 45.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.8
- Matchup attack score
- 54.7
Offense: 0.135 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.127 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateEast Carolina26.3 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 34.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 85.4
- Matchup attack score
- 24.5
Offense: 42.0%
Opponent defense: 34.8%
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 39.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.0
- Matchup attack score
- 50.7
Offense: 42.4%
Opponent defense: 41.8%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingEast Carolina28.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 79.6
- Matchup attack score
- 11.3
Offense: -0.124 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.028 PPA/play
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 55.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 75.2
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: 0.262 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.050 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingEast Carolina6.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 43.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 52.6
- Matchup attack score
- 45.3
Offense: 0.097 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.057 PPA/play
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 19.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 14.6
- Matchup attack score
- 52.2
Offense: 0.010 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.189 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEast Carolina17.2 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.7
- Matchup attack score
- 48.2
Offense: 1.134 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.373 PPA/successful play
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 58.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.7
- Matchup attack score
- 65.3
Offense: 1.274 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.332 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEast Carolina10.4 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 42.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 83.6
- Matchup attack score
- 29.6
Offense: 14.9%
Opponent defense: 19.4%
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 11.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 31.4
- Matchup attack score
- 40.0
Offense: 18.2%
Opponent defense: 14.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesEast Carolina24.8 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Rice offense
- Offensive percentile
- 25.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 79.6
- Matchup attack score
- 23.0
Offense: 3.32 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.85 pts/opportunity
East Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 25.5
- Matchup attack score
- 47.8
Offense: 3.24 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.84 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.