2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Charlotteat
North Texas
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ESPN+
DATCU Stadium · Denton, TX
- Projected score (away / home)
- 17.4/42.1
- Model line
- North Texas −24.7
- Market line
- North Texas −28.5
- Model pick
- Charlotte +28.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.020 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.407 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.505 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.464 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
0areas favor
Charlotte
0closely matched
5-point threshold
7areas favor
North Texas
EfficiencyNorth Texas44.2 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.2
- Matchup attack score
- 42.3
Offense: -0.080 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.182 PPA/play
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 92.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.0
- Matchup attack score
- 86.5
Offense: 0.316 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.190 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateNorth Texas38.9 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 6.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 13.5
- Matchup attack score
- 46.5
Offense: 36.1%
Opponent defense: 45.8%
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 75.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 5.1
- Matchup attack score
- 85.4
Offense: 47.7%
Opponent defense: 48.8%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingNorth Texas34.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 2.9
- Matchup attack score
- 55.1
Offense: 0.020 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.464 PPA/play
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 90.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 10.9
- Matchup attack score
- 89.8
Offense: 0.505 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.407 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingNorth Texas38.0 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 63.5
- Matchup attack score
- 22.3
Offense: -0.081 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.014 PPA/play
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 56.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.8
- Matchup attack score
- 60.2
Offense: 0.141 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.104 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessNorth Texas36.1 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 11.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.9
- Matchup attack score
- 25.9
Offense: 1.117 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.192 PPA/successful play
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 88.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 64.2
- Matchup attack score
- 62.0
Offense: 1.395 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.183 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocNorth Texas54.7 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.0
- Matchup attack score
- 33.0
Offense: 18.9%
Opponent defense: 15.5%
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 84.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 8.8
- Matchup attack score
- 87.8
Offense: 11.4%
Opponent defense: 12.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesNorth Texas39.4 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Charlotte offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 9.5
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 1.95 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.37 pts/opportunity
North Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 77.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 5.8
- Matchup attack score
- 85.8
Offense: 4.49 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.47 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.