2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
South Floridaat
UTSA
Thursday, October 8 · 6:30 PM CT · ESPN
Alamodome · San Antonio, TX
- Projected score (away / home)
- 31.4/29.2
- Model line
- South Florida −2.2
- Market line
- UTSA −7.0
- Model pick
- South Florida +7.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.171 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.196 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.177 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.080 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
5areas favor
South Florida
1closely matched
5-point threshold
1area favors
UTSA
EfficiencyEven0.4 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 48.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 60.6
- Matchup attack score
- 43.8
Offense: 0.153 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.037 PPA/play
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 59.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 71.5
- Matchup attack score
- 44.2
Offense: 0.191 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.003 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateSouth Florida15.0 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.0
- Matchup attack score
- 67.9
Offense: 48.8%
Opponent defense: 40.9%
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 48.9
- Matchup attack score
- 52.9
Offense: 44.3%
Opponent defense: 40.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingUTSA12.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.7
- Matchup attack score
- 36.5
Offense: 0.171 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.080 PPA/play
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 39.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.9
- Matchup attack score
- 49.3
Offense: 0.177 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.196 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingSouth Florida16.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 61.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 48.2
- Matchup attack score
- 56.6
Offense: 0.159 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.076 PPA/play
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 69.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.8
- Matchup attack score
- 39.8
Offense: 0.189 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.151 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessSouth Florida8.0 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 69.3
- Matchup attack score
- 18.2
Offense: 1.086 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.169 PPA/successful play
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 18.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.8
- Matchup attack score
- 10.2
Offense: 1.139 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 0.998 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocSouth Florida24.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 74.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 73.2
Offense: 12.6%
Opponent defense: 13.9%
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 63.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 66.1
- Matchup attack score
- 48.9
Offense: 13.4%
Opponent defense: 17.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesSouth Florida35.2 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
South Florida offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 50.4
- Matchup attack score
- 64.1
Offense: 4.50 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.37 pts/opportunity
UTSA offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 64.2
- Matchup attack score
- 28.8
Offense: 3.26 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.05 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.