2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Washington Stateat
Utah State
Friday, October 9 · 8:00 PM CT · CW
Maverik Stadium · Logan, UT
- Projected score (away / home)
- 20.1/22.3
- Model line
- Utah State −2.3
- Market line
- Utah State −5.5
- Model pick
- Washington State +5.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- -0.136 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.172 PPA/play
- Offense
- -0.089 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.142 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Washington State
3closely matched
5-point threshold
3areas favor
Utah State
EfficiencyUtah State6.6 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.7
- Matchup attack score
- 27.7
Offense: -0.108 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.088 PPA/play
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.1
- Matchup attack score
- 34.3
Offense: -0.052 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.101 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateEven4.7 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 1.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.7
- Matchup attack score
- 31.4
Offense: 33.8%
Opponent defense: 41.7%
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.8
- Matchup attack score
- 36.1
Offense: 36.4%
Opponent defense: 42.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingUtah State5.1 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 1.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 53.3
- Matchup attack score
- 24.1
Offense: -0.136 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.142 PPA/play
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.7
- Matchup attack score
- 29.2
Offense: -0.089 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.172 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingEven4.7 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 18.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 55.5
- Matchup attack score
- 31.4
Offense: -0.011 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.040 PPA/play
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 23.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.1
- Matchup attack score
- 36.1
Offense: 0.021 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.067 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessUtah State25.9 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 42.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 63.5
- Matchup attack score
- 39.4
Offense: 1.221 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.187 PPA/successful play
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 55.5
- Matchup attack score
- 65.3
Offense: 1.366 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.221 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven2.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 3.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 17.9
- Matchup attack score
- 42.7
Offense: 20.0%
Opponent defense: 12.9%
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 6.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.4
- Matchup attack score
- 44.9
Offense: 19.2%
Opponent defense: 12.8%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesWashington State16.1 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Washington State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 20.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.7
- Matchup attack score
- 36.9
Offense: 3.21 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.42 pts/opportunity
Utah State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 61.3
- Matchup attack score
- 20.8
Offense: 1.96 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.17 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.