2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
San Diego Stateat
Oregon State
Saturday, October 10 · 5:00 PM CT · USA Net
Reser Stadium · Corvallis, OR
- Projected score (away / home)
- 18.1/29.5
- Model line
- Oregon State −11.3
- Market line
- Oregon State −14.0
- Model pick
- San Diego State +14.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- -0.124 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.257 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.430 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.118 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
0areas favor
San Diego State
1closely matched
5-point threshold
6areas favor
Oregon State
EfficiencyOregon State44.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 6.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 45.3
- Matchup attack score
- 30.7
Offense: -0.076 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.093 PPA/play
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 87.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 36.5
- Matchup attack score
- 75.5
Offense: 0.300 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.121 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateOregon State52.9 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.9
- Matchup attack score
- 29.9
Offense: 32.7%
Opponent defense: 41.5%
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 15.3
- Matchup attack score
- 82.8
Offense: 48.6%
Opponent defense: 45.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingOregon State53.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 56.9
- Matchup attack score
- 23.0
Offense: -0.124 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.118 PPA/play
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 83.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 30.7
- Matchup attack score
- 76.6
Offense: 0.430 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.257 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingEven2.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 19.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.8
- Matchup attack score
- 38.0
Offense: 0.011 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.086 PPA/play
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 41.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.9
- Matchup attack score
- 40.9
Offense: 0.088 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.018 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessOregon State9.1 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 63.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 76.6
- Matchup attack score
- 43.4
Offense: 1.292 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.136 PPA/successful play
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 85.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 80.3
- Matchup attack score
- 52.6
Offense: 1.355 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.123 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocOregon State45.8 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 33.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.5
- Matchup attack score
- 37.0
Offense: 15.6%
Opponent defense: 16.9%
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 80.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 14.6
- Matchup attack score
- 82.8
Offense: 11.7%
Opponent defense: 12.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesOregon State26.8 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
San Diego State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 19.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.9
- Matchup attack score
- 39.4
Offense: 3.20 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.56 pts/opportunity
Oregon State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 87.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 55.1
- Matchup attack score
- 66.2
Offense: 4.81 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.31 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.