2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Boise Stateat
Fresno State
Saturday, October 10 · 9:30 PM CT · CW
Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 28.0/21.8
- Model line
- Boise State −6.2
- Market line
- Boise State −6.5
- Model pick
- Fresno State +6.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.403 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.057 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.409 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.042 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
5areas favor
Boise State
0closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Fresno State
EfficiencyBoise State15.3 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 89.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 92.7
- Matchup attack score
- 48.5
Offense: 0.310 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.087 PPA/play
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 35.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 68.6
- Matchup attack score
- 33.2
Offense: 0.097 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.015 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateBoise State51.1 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 84.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 52.6
- Matchup attack score
- 66.1
Offense: 49.4%
Opponent defense: 40.1%
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 83.2
- Matchup attack score
- 15.0
Offense: 38.3%
Opponent defense: 35.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingFresno State8.0 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 80.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 87.6
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 0.403 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.042 PPA/play
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.0
- Matchup attack score
- 54.4
Offense: 0.409 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.057 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingBoise State20.4 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 83.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 76.6
- Matchup attack score
- 53.6
Offense: 0.230 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.047 PPA/play
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.9
- Matchup attack score
- 33.2
Offense: -0.081 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.092 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessFresno State57.3 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 82.5
- Matchup attack score
- 28.8
Offense: 1.212 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.115 PPA/successful play
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 72.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 0.0
- Matchup attack score
- 86.1
Offense: 1.316 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.692 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocBoise State31.9 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 95.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 50.4
- Matchup attack score
- 72.4
Offense: 9.1%
Opponent defense: 16.0%
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 66.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 85.8
- Matchup attack score
- 40.5
Offense: 13.2%
Opponent defense: 20.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesBoise State24.1 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Boise State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 75.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 75.9
- Matchup attack score
- 49.6
Offense: 4.44 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.91 pts/opportunity
Fresno State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 87.6
- Matchup attack score
- 25.5
Offense: 3.66 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.61 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.