2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
USCat
Penn State
Saturday, October 10 · 6:30 PM CT · NBC
Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 27.2/28.8
- Model line
- Penn State −1.6
- Market line
- Penn State −1.5
- Model pick
- Penn State −1.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.557 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.411 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.389 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.202 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
2areas favor
USC
2closely matched
5-point threshold
3areas favor
Penn State
EfficiencyEven4.0 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 89.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.0
- Matchup attack score
- 62.0
Offense: 0.308 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.018 PPA/play
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 62.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.9
- Matchup attack score
- 66.1
Offense: 0.200 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.151 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateUSC24.5 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 94.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.2
- Matchup attack score
- 63.9
Offense: 52.1%
Opponent defense: 37.8%
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 28.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 49.6
- Matchup attack score
- 39.4
Offense: 40.8%
Opponent defense: 40.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingPenn State35.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 96.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 98.5
- Matchup attack score
- 48.9
Offense: 0.557 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.202 PPA/play
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 8.8
- Matchup attack score
- 84.7
Offense: 0.389 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.411 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingUSC35.0 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 3.6
- Matchup attack score
- 68.2
Offense: 0.086 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.260 PPA/play
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 30.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 64.2
- Matchup attack score
- 33.2
Offense: 0.046 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.013 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessPenn State33.6 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 49.6
- Matchup attack score
- 41.6
Offense: 1.191 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.239 PPA/successful play
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 70.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 20.4
- Matchup attack score
- 75.2
Offense: 1.313 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.369 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocPenn State14.8 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 94.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 71.2
- Matchup attack score
- 61.5
Offense: 9.3%
Opponent defense: 18.0%
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 62.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 9.9
- Matchup attack score
- 76.3
Offense: 13.5%
Opponent defense: 12.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesEven2.6 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
USC offense
- Offensive percentile
- 79.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 34.3
- Matchup attack score
- 72.6
Offense: 4.54 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.70 pts/opportunity
Penn State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 13.9
- Matchup attack score
- 70.1
Offense: 4.03 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.23 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.