2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Marylandat
Ohio State
Saturday, October 10 · 3:15 PM CT · BTN
Ohio Stadium · Columbus, OH
- Projected score (away / home)
- 14.9/40.6
- Model line
- Ohio State −25.7
- Market line
- Ohio State −34.5
- Model pick
- Maryland +34.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.039 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.160 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.636 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.062 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Maryland
0closely matched
5-point threshold
6areas favor
Ohio State
EfficiencyOhio State57.3 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 79.6
- Matchup attack score
- 20.8
Offense: 0.063 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.035 PPA/play
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 94.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.7
- Matchup attack score
- 78.1
Offense: 0.356 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.106 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateOhio State51.8 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.7
- Matchup attack score
- 29.2
Offense: 41.6%
Opponent defense: 37.1%
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 97.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.0
- Matchup attack score
- 81.0
Offense: 53.4%
Opponent defense: 42.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingOhio State60.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 18.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.1
- Matchup attack score
- 14.6
Offense: 0.039 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.062 PPA/play
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 98.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 48.2
- Matchup attack score
- 75.2
Offense: 0.636 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.160 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingOhio State12.0 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 62.0
- Matchup attack score
- 42.0
Offense: 0.103 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.016 PPA/play
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.7
- Matchup attack score
- 54.0
Offense: 0.105 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.094 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessMaryland20.4 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 84.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.1
- Matchup attack score
- 72.3
Offense: 1.353 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.277 PPA/successful play
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.1
- Matchup attack score
- 51.8
Offense: 1.261 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.236 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocOhio State33.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 55.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 85.8
- Matchup attack score
- 34.9
Offense: 14.0%
Opponent defense: 20.1%
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.0
- Matchup attack score
- 68.1
Offense: 11.9%
Opponent defense: 15.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesOhio State68.2 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Maryland offense
- Offensive percentile
- 15.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 23.7
Offense: 3.03 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Ohio State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 90.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 6.6
- Matchup attack score
- 92.0
Offense: 4.91 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.46 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.