2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Illinoisat
Michigan State
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · FS1
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
- Projected score (away / home)
- 30.5/24.6
- Model line
- Illinois −6.0
- Market line
- Illinois −2.5
- Model pick
- Illinois −2.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.320 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.414 PPA/play
- Offense
- -0.018 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.262 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
7areas favor
Illinois
0closely matched
5-point threshold
0areas favor
Michigan State
EfficiencyIllinois25.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 72.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 20.4
- Matchup attack score
- 75.9
Offense: 0.244 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.187 PPA/play
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 7.3
- Matchup attack score
- 50.0
Offense: -0.063 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.272 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateIllinois8.0 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 83.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 47.4
- Matchup attack score
- 67.9
Offense: 48.8%
Opponent defense: 40.7%
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 36.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.8
- Matchup attack score
- 59.9
Offense: 42.3%
Opponent defense: 45.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingIllinois18.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 64.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.7
- Matchup attack score
- 68.2
Offense: 0.320 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.262 PPA/play
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 7.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 8.0
- Matchup attack score
- 49.6
Offense: -0.018 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.414 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingIllinois25.5 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 33.6
- Matchup attack score
- 69.7
Offense: 0.203 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.112 PPA/play
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 24.8
- Matchup attack score
- 44.2
Offense: -0.055 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.134 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessIllinois44.9 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 76.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 22.6
- Matchup attack score
- 77.0
Offense: 1.331 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.349 PPA/successful play
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 1.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 37.2
- Matchup attack score
- 32.1
Offense: 1.022 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.281 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocIllinois29.2 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 82.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 77.2
Offense: 11.5%
Opponent defense: 13.9%
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 12.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.4
- Matchup attack score
- 48.0
Offense: 18.0%
Opponent defense: 12.8%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesIllinois17.3 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Illinois offense
- Offensive percentile
- 49.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 33.6
- Matchup attack score
- 58.0
Offense: 3.82 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.71 pts/opportunity
Michigan State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 14.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 32.8
- Matchup attack score
- 40.7
Offense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.72 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.