2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Wake Forestat
NC State
Saturday, October 10 · 11:00 AM CT · CW
Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC
- Projected score (away / home)
- 26.2/29.5
- Model line
- NC State −3.4
- Market line
- Wake Forest −4.0
- Model pick
- NC State +4.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.396 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.237 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.445 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.337 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
5areas favor
Wake Forest
2closely matched
5-point threshold
0areas favor
NC State
EfficiencyWake Forest22.3 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 92.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 17.5
- Matchup attack score
- 87.6
Offense: 0.330 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.193 PPA/play
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 64.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 33.6
- Matchup attack score
- 65.3
Offense: 0.219 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.136 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateWake Forest10.2 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.0
- Matchup attack score
- 75.9
Offense: 48.3%
Opponent defense: 43.8%
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 60.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.2
- Matchup attack score
- 65.7
Offense: 44.9%
Opponent defense: 43.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingEven4.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 18.2
- Matchup attack score
- 80.3
Offense: 0.396 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.337 PPA/play
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.0
- Matchup attack score
- 75.5
Offense: 0.445 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.237 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingWake Forest47.4 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 85.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.0
- Matchup attack score
- 79.2
Offense: 0.249 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.132 PPA/play
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 29.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 66.4
- Matchup attack score
- 31.8
Offense: 0.044 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.011 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessWake Forest29.9 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 65.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 68.2
Offense: 1.295 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.326 PPA/successful play
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 62.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 85.4
- Matchup attack score
- 38.3
Offense: 1.287 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.112 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven3.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 69.0
- Matchup attack score
- 56.4
Offense: 11.6%
Opponent defense: 17.8%
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 47.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 28.5
- Matchup attack score
- 59.7
Offense: 14.7%
Opponent defense: 13.9%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesWake Forest11.5 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Wake Forest offense
- Offensive percentile
- 64.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 40.1
- Matchup attack score
- 62.2
Offense: 4.25 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.57 pts/opportunity
NC State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 63.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 62.0
- Matchup attack score
- 50.7
Offense: 4.24 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.14 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.