2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Virginia Techat
California
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ACC Network
California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 31.8/19.7
- Model line
- Virginia Tech −12.1
- Market line
- Virginia Tech −8.5
- Model pick
- Virginia Tech −8.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.442 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.203 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.080 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.006 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
6areas favor
Virginia Tech
1closely matched
5-point threshold
0areas favor
California
EfficiencyVirginia Tech33.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 70.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.8
- Matchup attack score
- 59.5
Offense: 0.235 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.069 PPA/play
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 9.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 58.4
- Matchup attack score
- 25.5
Offense: -0.021 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.053 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateVirginia Tech31.4 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.0
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 47.1%
Opponent defense: 35.5%
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 9.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 79.6
- Matchup attack score
- 15.0
Offense: 37.5%
Opponent defense: 36.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingVirginia Tech8.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 85.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 83.9
- Matchup attack score
- 50.7
Offense: 0.442 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.006 PPA/play
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 23.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 39.4
- Matchup attack score
- 42.0
Offense: 0.080 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.203 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingVirginia Tech47.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 34.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 8.0
- Matchup attack score
- 63.1
Offense: 0.068 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.242 PPA/play
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 5.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 75.2
- Matchup attack score
- 15.3
Offense: -0.094 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.041 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEven4.7 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 74.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 4.4
- Matchup attack score
- 85.0
Offense: 1.327 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.466 PPA/successful play
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 17.5
- Matchup attack score
- 80.3
Offense: 1.334 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.376 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocVirginia Tech67.7 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 25.2
- Matchup attack score
- 76.8
Offense: 11.8%
Opponent defense: 13.6%
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 99.3
- Matchup attack score
- 9.1
Offense: 16.9%
Opponent defense: 25.2%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesVirginia Tech33.9 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Virginia Tech offense
- Offensive percentile
- 80.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 71.5
- Matchup attack score
- 54.4
Offense: 4.54 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.97 pts/opportunity
California offense
- Offensive percentile
- 8.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 20.4
Offense: 2.66 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.