2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Syracuseat
Virginia
Saturday, October 10 · 6:30 PM CT · ACC Network
Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 15.4/31.9
- Model line
- Virginia −16.6
- Market line
- Virginia −9.5
- Model pick
- Virginia −9.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.132 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.086 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.366 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.105 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
3areas favor
Syracuse
1closely matched
5-point threshold
3areas favor
Virginia
EfficiencyVirginia10.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 30.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 50.4
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: 0.089 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.071 PPA/play
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.8
- Matchup attack score
- 51.1
Offense: 0.251 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.010 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateVirginia22.3 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 41.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 57.7
- Matchup attack score
- 42.0
Offense: 42.8%
Opponent defense: 39.5%
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 76.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 48.2
- Matchup attack score
- 64.2
Offense: 47.8%
Opponent defense: 40.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingVirginia7.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 28.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 62.0
- Matchup attack score
- 33.2
Offense: 0.132 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.105 PPA/play
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 91.2
- Matchup attack score
- 40.9
Offense: 0.366 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.086 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingEven1.5 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 64.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 18.2
- Matchup attack score
- 73.0
Offense: 0.165 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.153 PPA/play
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 80.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 31.4
- Matchup attack score
- 74.5
Offense: 0.218 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.114 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessSyracuse13.1 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 69.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 92.0
- Matchup attack score
- 38.7
Offense: 1.312 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.072 PPA/successful play
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 9.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 58.4
- Matchup attack score
- 25.5
Offense: 1.106 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.193 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocSyracuse5.5 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 74.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.4
- Matchup attack score
- 50.7
Offense: 12.6%
Opponent defense: 18.1%
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 69.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 78.8
- Matchup attack score
- 45.3
Offense: 13.1%
Opponent defense: 18.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesSyracuse9.9 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Syracuse offense
- Offensive percentile
- 37.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.9
- Matchup attack score
- 53.6
Offense: 3.64 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.75 pts/opportunity
Virginia offense
- Offensive percentile
- 55.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 43.8
Offense: 4.06 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.