2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
North Carolinaat
Pittsburgh
Saturday, October 10 · 11:00 AM CT · ESPN
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
- Projected score (away / home)
- 16.3/28.9
- Model line
- Pittsburgh −12.5
- Market line
- Pittsburgh −4.0
- Model pick
- Pittsburgh −4.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.191 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.114 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.361 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.152 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
North Carolina
0closely matched
5-point threshold
6areas favor
Pittsburgh
EfficiencyPittsburgh23.4 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 43.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.0
- Matchup attack score
- 31.4
Offense: 0.131 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.039 PPA/play
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 65.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 56.2
- Matchup attack score
- 54.7
Offense: 0.224 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.060 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success ratePittsburgh17.9 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 74.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 95.6
- Matchup attack score
- 39.4
Offense: 47.2%
Opponent defense: 32.6%
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 26.3
- Matchup attack score
- 57.3
Offense: 42.6%
Opponent defense: 43.8%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingPittsburgh12.0 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 40.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 51.8
- Matchup attack score
- 44.5
Offense: 0.191 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.152 PPA/play
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 71.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 58.4
- Matchup attack score
- 56.6
Offense: 0.361 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.114 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingPittsburgh33.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 49.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 96.4
- Matchup attack score
- 26.6
Offense: 0.121 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.197 PPA/play
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 30.7
- Matchup attack score
- 60.6
Offense: 0.126 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.116 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessNorth Carolina5.5 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 6.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 2.9
- Matchup attack score
- 51.8
Offense: 1.093 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.484 PPA/successful play
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 87.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 94.9
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 1.389 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.034 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocPittsburgh42.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 41.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 60.6
- Matchup attack score
- 40.5
Offense: 15.0%
Opponent defense: 17.1%
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 85.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.7
- Matchup attack score
- 82.8
Offense: 11.3%
Opponent defense: 13.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesPittsburgh15.0 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
North Carolina offense
- Offensive percentile
- 75.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.8
- Matchup attack score
- 43.1
Offense: 4.45 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.52 pts/opportunity
Pittsburgh offense
- Offensive percentile
- 65.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 49.6
- Matchup attack score
- 58.0
Offense: 4.26 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.38 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.