2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Florida Stateat
Louisville
Friday, October 9 · 6:00 PM CT · ESPN
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY
- Projected score (away / home)
- 28.1/34.1
- Model line
- Louisville −6.0
- Market line
- Louisville −3.5
- Model pick
- Louisville −3.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.370 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.317 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.440 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.455 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
2areas favor
Florida State
3closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Louisville
EfficiencyLouisville10.2 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 82.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 27.0
- Matchup attack score
- 77.7
Offense: 0.281 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.156 PPA/play
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 91.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 15.3
- Matchup attack score
- 88.0
Offense: 0.313 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.200 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateLouisville15.5 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 61.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.1
- Matchup attack score
- 59.1
Offense: 45.1%
Opponent defense: 41.2%
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 80.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 31.0
- Matchup attack score
- 74.6
Offense: 48.5%
Opponent defense: 42.9%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingEven3.3 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 4.4
- Matchup attack score
- 84.7
Offense: 0.370 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.455 PPA/play
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 84.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.9
- Matchup attack score
- 81.4
Offense: 0.440 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.317 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingEven3.3 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 95.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 71.5
- Matchup attack score
- 62.0
Offense: 0.303 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.028 PPA/play
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 67.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 36.5
- Matchup attack score
- 65.3
Offense: 0.171 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.102 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEven1.1 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 96.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.1
- Matchup attack score
- 76.6
Offense: 1.476 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.272 PPA/successful play
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 90.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.0
- Matchup attack score
- 77.7
Offense: 1.408 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.300 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocFlorida State36.9 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 55.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 22.3
- Matchup attack score
- 66.6
Offense: 14.0%
Opponent defense: 13.2%
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 61.7
- Matchup attack score
- 29.7
Offense: 16.7%
Opponent defense: 17.2%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesFlorida State25.7 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Florida State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 91.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 45.3
- Matchup attack score
- 73.2
Offense: 4.94 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.44 pts/opportunity
Louisville offense
- Offensive percentile
- 62.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 47.4
Offense: 4.24 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.