2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Houstonat
Kansas State
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · FOX
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS
- Projected score (away / home)
- 27.4/31.5
- Model line
- Kansas State −4.2
- Market line
- Kansas State −2.5
- Model pick
- Kansas State −2.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.456 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.208 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.271 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.077 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Houston
0closely matched
5-point threshold
6areas favor
Kansas State
EfficiencyKansas State9.9 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.1
- Matchup attack score
- 58.0
Offense: 0.292 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.011 PPA/play
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 79.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.8
- Matchup attack score
- 67.9
Offense: 0.268 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.094 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateKansas State10.6 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 97.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 96.4
- Matchup attack score
- 50.7
Offense: 53.6%
Opponent defense: 32.4%
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 82.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 59.9
- Matchup attack score
- 61.3
Offense: 48.8%
Opponent defense: 39.3%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingKansas State10.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.8
- Matchup attack score
- 48.5
Offense: 0.456 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.077 PPA/play
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 56.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 38.7
- Matchup attack score
- 59.1
Offense: 0.271 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.208 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingHouston12.8 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 62.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.8
- Matchup attack score
- 73.0
Offense: 0.161 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.157 PPA/play
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 90.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.1
- Matchup attack score
- 60.2
Offense: 0.277 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.026 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessKansas State19.0 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 2.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 2.2
- Matchup attack score
- 50.0
Offense: 1.047 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.486 PPA/successful play
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 54.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 16.1
- Matchup attack score
- 69.0
Offense: 1.257 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.381 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocKansas State5.5 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 93.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.1
- Matchup attack score
- 48.0
Offense: 9.8%
Opponent defense: 23.8%
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 97.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 90.5
- Matchup attack score
- 53.5
Offense: 8.4%
Opponent defense: 21.2%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesKansas State16.6 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Houston offense
- Offensive percentile
- 82.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 24.5
- Matchup attack score
- 79.0
Offense: 4.65 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.86 pts/opportunity
Kansas State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 92.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 1.5
- Matchup attack score
- 95.6
Offense: 4.96 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.95 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.