2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
UCFat
Oklahoma State
Saturday, October 10 · 11:00 AM CT · ESPN2
Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK
- Projected score (away / home)
- 22.2/25.9
- Model line
- Oklahoma State −3.7
- Market line
- Oklahoma State −9.5
- Model pick
- UCF +9.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.017 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.065 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.289 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.132 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
3areas favor
UCF
0closely matched
5-point threshold
4areas favor
Oklahoma State
EfficiencyOklahoma State7.3 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 19.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 74.5
- Matchup attack score
- 22.6
Offense: 0.041 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.009 PPA/play
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 41.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.8
- Matchup attack score
- 29.9
Offense: 0.123 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.041 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateOklahoma State29.6 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 66.4
- Matchup attack score
- 25.5
Offense: 39.1%
Opponent defense: 37.9%
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 75.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.0
- Matchup attack score
- 55.1
Offense: 47.3%
Opponent defense: 38.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingOklahoma State35.8 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 12.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 95.6
- Matchup attack score
- 8.4
Offense: 0.017 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.132 PPA/play
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 59.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 71.5
- Matchup attack score
- 44.2
Offense: 0.289 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.065 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingUCF23.4 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 37.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 46.0
- Matchup attack score
- 45.6
Offense: 0.071 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.081 PPA/play
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 26.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.8
- Matchup attack score
- 22.3
Offense: 0.030 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.102 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessUCF20.8 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 43.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 65.0
- Matchup attack score
- 39.1
Offense: 1.227 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.183 PPA/successful play
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 13.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 77.4
- Matchup attack score
- 18.2
Offense: 1.124 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.136 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocOklahoma State34.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 37.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 52.9
- Matchup attack score
- 42.3
Offense: 15.3%
Opponent defense: 16.3%
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 95.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.0
- Matchup attack score
- 76.6
Offense: 9.1%
Opponent defense: 15.5%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesUCF33.9 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
UCF offense
- Offensive percentile
- 89.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 60.6
Offense: 4.86 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.00 pts/opportunity
Oklahoma State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 44.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 90.9
- Matchup attack score
- 26.6
Offense: 3.75 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.50 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.