2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Hawai'iat
Arizona State
Saturday, October 10 · 8:30 PM CT · FS1
Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ
- Projected score (away / home)
- 15.3/32.5
- Model line
- Arizona State −17.2
- Market line
- Arizona State −20.5
- Model pick
- Hawai'i +20.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.127 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.194 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.256 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.258 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
1area favors
Hawai'i
1closely matched
5-point threshold
5areas favor
Arizona State
EfficiencyArizona State5.1 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 18.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 24.1
- Matchup attack score
- 47.1
Offense: 0.037 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.165 PPA/play
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 19.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 14.6
- Matchup attack score
- 52.2
Offense: 0.037 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.203 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateArizona State29.6 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 56.9
- Matchup attack score
- 29.9
Offense: 39.0%
Opponent defense: 39.5%
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 38.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.7
- Matchup attack score
- 59.5
Offense: 42.3%
Opponent defense: 44.7%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingArizona State6.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.2
- Matchup attack score
- 49.3
Offense: 0.127 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.258 PPA/play
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 53.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 41.6
- Matchup attack score
- 55.8
Offense: 0.256 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.194 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingArizona State10.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 15.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.1
- Matchup attack score
- 36.1
Offense: -0.037 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.089 PPA/play
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 9.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 15.3
- Matchup attack score
- 47.1
Offense: -0.076 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.187 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessHawai'i12.0 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 19.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 5.8
- Matchup attack score
- 56.6
Offense: 1.142 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.457 PPA/successful play
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 57.7
- Matchup attack score
- 44.5
Offense: 1.243 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.194 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven4.6 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 17.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 26.6
- Matchup attack score
- 45.4
Offense: 16.9%
Opponent defense: 13.7%
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 23.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 23.7
- Matchup attack score
- 50.0
Offense: 16.3%
Opponent defense: 13.3%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesArizona State15.7 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Hawai'i offense
- Offensive percentile
- 10.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 48.9
- Matchup attack score
- 30.7
Offense: 2.81 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.41 pts/opportunity
Arizona State offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 35.0
- Matchup attack score
- 46.4
Offense: 3.37 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.68 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.