2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Ole Missat
Vanderbilt
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ESPN
FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN
- Projected score (away / home)
- 29.6/28.6
- Model line
- Ole Miss −0.9
- Market line
- Ole Miss −10.0
- Model pick
- Vanderbilt +10.0
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.429 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.324 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.219 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.155 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
2areas favor
Ole Miss
4closely matched
5-point threshold
1area favors
Vanderbilt
EfficiencyEven0.0 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 75.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 54.0
- Matchup attack score
- 60.9
Offense: 0.262 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.062 PPA/play
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 32.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 10.2
- Matchup attack score
- 60.9
Offense: 0.094 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.247 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateOle Miss9.5 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 90.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 53.3
- Matchup attack score
- 68.6
Offense: 50.8%
Opponent defense: 40.1%
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 24.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 6.6
- Matchup attack score
- 59.1
Offense: 40.4%
Opponent defense: 48.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingEven4.0 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 83.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 50.4
- Matchup attack score
- 66.4
Offense: 0.429 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.155 PPA/play
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 45.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 20.4
- Matchup attack score
- 62.4
Offense: 0.219 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.324 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingVanderbilt31.0 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 48.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 40.1
Offense: 0.114 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.004 PPA/play
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 55.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 13.1
- Matchup attack score
- 71.2
Offense: 0.140 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.201 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEven1.8 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 44.5
- Matchup attack score
- 41.2
Offense: 1.166 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.265 PPA/successful play
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 52.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 73.7
- Matchup attack score
- 39.4
Offense: 1.256 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.146 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven3.8 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 42.0
- Matchup attack score
- 65.9
Offense: 12.7%
Opponent defense: 15.5%
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 59.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 19.7
- Matchup attack score
- 69.7
Offense: 13.7%
Opponent defense: 13.0%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesOle Miss24.1 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Ole Miss offense
- Offensive percentile
- 86.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 43.1
- Matchup attack score
- 71.9
Offense: 4.75 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.54 pts/opportunity
Vanderbilt offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 20.4
- Matchup attack score
- 47.8
Offense: 3.04 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 4.00 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.