2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
Texasvs
Oklahoma
Saturday, October 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ABC
Cotton Bowl · Dallas, TX
- Projected score (away / home)
- 22.4/15.5
- Model line
- Texas −6.9
- Market line
- Texas −8.5
- Model pick
- Oklahoma +8.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.248 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.020 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.266 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.139 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
3areas favor
Texas
2closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Oklahoma
EfficiencyEven4.0 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 27.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 98.5
- Matchup attack score
- 14.6
Offense: 0.081 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.174 PPA/play
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 4.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 83.2
- Matchup attack score
- 10.6
Offense: -0.083 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.044 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateTexas19.7 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 59.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.8
- Matchup attack score
- 31.0
Offense: 44.9%
Opponent defense: 30.7%
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 10.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 87.6
- Matchup attack score
- 11.3
Offense: 37.6%
Opponent defense: 34.4%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingOklahoma7.7 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 96.4
- Matchup attack score
- 27.7
Offense: 0.248 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.139 PPA/play
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 56.2
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 85.4
- Matchup attack score
- 35.4
Offense: 0.266 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.020 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingTexas9.1 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 80.3
- Matchup attack score
- 20.8
Offense: 0.020 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.088 PPA/play
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 0.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 77.4
- Matchup attack score
- 11.7
Offense: -0.341 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.050 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessEven2.9 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 16.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.8
- Matchup attack score
- 23.0
Offense: 1.134 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.165 PPA/successful play
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 21.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 81.8
- Matchup attack score
- 20.1
Offense: 1.151 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.115 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocOklahoma9.3 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 15.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 91.6
- Matchup attack score
- 11.9
Offense: 17.1%
Opponent defense: 21.6%
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 31.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 89.1
- Matchup attack score
- 21.2
Offense: 15.7%
Opponent defense: 20.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesTexas17.0 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
Texas offense
- Offensive percentile
- 64.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.8
- Matchup attack score
- 33.4
Offense: 4.25 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.08 pts/opportunity
Oklahoma offense
- Offensive percentile
- 28.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 95.6
- Matchup attack score
- 16.4
Offense: 3.39 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 2.19 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.