2026 college football / Week 6 matchup
LSUat
Kentucky
Saturday, October 10 · 6:00 PM CT · ESPN
Kroger Field · Lexington, KY
- Projected score (away / home)
- 29.7/18.9
- Model line
- LSU −10.8
- Market line
- LSU −8.5
- Model pick
- LSU −8.5
01 / Team identity
Offense + defense
Larger = stronger. On pace, larger = faster.
Select a category to explore its underlying numbers.
Passing
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
- Offense
- 0.352 PPA/play
- Defense
- -0.126 PPA/play
- Offense
- 0.241 PPA/play
- Defense
- 0.075 PPA/play
02 / Matchup advantages
4areas favor
LSU
1closely matched
5-point threshold
2areas favor
Kentucky
EfficiencyLSU25.2 pts
Predicted points added (PPA) per play. A measure of how much value a team creates or allows on each snap.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 76.6
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 56.9
- Matchup attack score
- 59.9
Offense: 0.263 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.055 PPA/play
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 66.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.1
- Matchup attack score
- 34.7
Offense: 0.224 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.133 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Success rateLSU33.9 pts
How consistently a team produces successful plays on offense and prevents them on defense.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 85.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 25.5
- Matchup attack score
- 79.9
Offense: 49.5%
Opponent defense: 44.3%
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 92.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 100.0
- Matchup attack score
- 46.0
Offense: 51.0%
Opponent defense: 27.6%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
PassingLSU22.6 pts
Predicted points added on passing plays. Measures production through the air on offense and passing production allowed on defense.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 69.3
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 67.9
- Matchup attack score
- 50.7
Offense: 0.352 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.075 PPA/play
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 51.1
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 94.9
- Matchup attack score
- 28.1
Offense: 0.241 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.126 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
RushingLSU29.9 pts
Predicted points added on rushing plays. Measures ground-game production on offense and rushing production allowed on defense.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 81.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 34.3
- Matchup attack score
- 73.4
Offense: 0.219 PPA/play
Opponent defense: 0.110 PPA/play
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 74.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 87.6
- Matchup attack score
- 43.4
Offense: 0.206 PPA/play
Opponent defense: -0.142 PPA/play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
ExplosivenessKentucky13.5 pts
Predicted points added per successful play. Captures the impact of productive plays, beyond how often they happen.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 46.0
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 70.1
- Matchup attack score
- 38.0
Offense: 1.242 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.168 PPA/successful play
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 24.8
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 21.9
- Matchup attack score
- 51.5
Offense: 1.161 PPA/successful play
Opponent defense: 1.352 PPA/successful play
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
HavocEven0.5 pts
Disruption created on defense and avoided on offense. Lower offensive havoc allowed and higher defensive havoc created are better.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 35.4
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 71.2
- Matchup attack score
- 32.1
Offense: 15.5%
Opponent defense: 18.0%
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 60.9
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 97.8
- Matchup attack score
- 31.6
Offense: 13.6%
Opponent defense: 24.1%
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Finishing drivesKentucky5.1 pts
Points scored or allowed per scoring opportunity. Measures how effectively teams turn opportunities into points or limit the damage.
LSU offense
- Offensive percentile
- 73.7
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 29.9
- Matchup attack score
- 71.9
Offense: 4.42 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.75 pts/opportunity
Kentucky offense
- Offensive percentile
- 78.5
- Opponent defensive percentile
- 24.5
- Matchup attack score
- 77.0
Offense: 4.50 pts/opportunity
Opponent defense: 3.86 pts/opportunity
Attack score = (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. The difference between the two scores determines the edge.
Bars point toward the team with the edge. Select a row to see why. These are statistical comparisons, not scoring margins or win probabilities.
How to read these charts
Statistics cover Weeks 1–5 of 2026, against all opponents. Percentiles compare 138 FBS teams; ties share ranks. Early-season profiles reflect a small sample.
Fingerprints: overall scores average offensive and defensive percentiles. Higher is better on both sides of the ball, including havoc avoidance on offense. Pace uses the offensive percentile only: higher means faster, not better. Missing values are shown as a dash and left unplotted.
Matchup edges: compare the two attack scores, each calculated as (offensive percentile + 100 − opponent defensive percentile) ÷ 2. Differences within 5 percentile points are labeled even. Pace does not contribute to the advantage map. These comparisons describe statistical strengths, not causal effects or win probabilities.
Source: CollegeFootballData advanced season statistics and team metadata; pace comes from local box scores. PPA stands for predicted points added. Advanced statistics exclude garbage time where supported. Pace includes all box-score plays.