2025 MLB Projected Wins
A Division-by-Division Breakdown of Projected Wins vs. Betting Totals
As the 2025 MLB season approaches, I decided to try my hand at building a model to predict each teams win total. We will compare the model’s projected win totals against the betting market’s expectations. This analysis breaks down each division, showing which teams might overperform or underperform based on current betting totals.
AL East
Pretty similar expectations from the last season. A pretty tight division that I hope produces some exciting divisional battles. The Yankees did lose Juan Soto which will likely reduce offensive output for this season. Also, the Orioles are one of the teams I am most excited to watch this year. That “young core” has another year of experience and could battle the Yankees for the division.
AL Central
Aside from the White Sox, all teams in this division believe they can win the division. The Guardians are coming off an ALCS appearance from the previous season and looking to get back in 2025. They are a team I am most likely to bet over their win total of 82.5 as my model has them projected to win 86 games.
AL West
Yes I know the Athletics are no longer in Oakland, but that is how my code had the teams setup so cut me some slack please. This division can be broken into two groups. First, the Mariners, Astros, and Rangers all with a chance to win the division. Then the Athletics and Angels both battling for last place. I just hope we get a healthy Mike Trout for a full season. Baseball is more fun when Mike Trout is playing.
NL East
We might see three teams from the NL East in the postseason in 2025. With losing a great arm like Max Fried and Ronald Acuña Jr. missing a month recovering from knee surgery, the Braves are a team I look at for betting their win total under at 93.5. They are still a good team, but with how good the Phillies are, and the Mets improving by adding Juan Soto to the lineup, I don’t expect them to runaway with the division.
NL Central
In my opinion this is one of the least exciting divisions in 2025. The most exciting thing to watch will be Paul Skenes. I will watch every single on of his starts. Other than that I don’t have much to say. Sorry NL Central fans.
NL West
Last but not least, the NL West. The division with the team that I will be watching 162 times this year, minus any blackouts (thanks MLB). The Los Angeles Dodgers! They had two of the best signees this offseason in Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell. With the addition of Sasaki, Snell, and the pitching comeback of Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers significantly improve their starting rotation. The Padres did give the Dodgers problems at times last season, but the Dodgers improved and will no doubt be the best team in baseball. I am just so excited to watch Shohei Ohtani play again after his historic 50/50 season. You have been warned I will be waxing poetic about Ohtani in this blog all season.
Final Thoughts
BASEBALL IS BACK!